The Plastic Forecast

Read the campaign story

Minderoo Foundation worked with M&C Saatchi and Collider Studio on The Plastic Forecast in 2023. The project translated research about atmospheric plastic into a familiar weather-report format, combining it with weather information to estimate deposition. A French government event notice places an unveiling at ChangeNOW in Paris on 25 May 2023, shortly before the next round of international plastics negotiations.

The award account describes broadcast, outdoor and social activity near the policy discussions. Its broader statements about treaty progress are not adopted here as verified outcomes or proof of campaign influence. The documented creative achievement is a new way of presenting an environmental estimate. It is important to preserve that word: a forecast is a modelled interpretation of available evidence, not an instrument measuring every location in real time.

Editorial interpretation: a weather report is an unusually efficient container for difficult information. People already understand that it concerns a place, a time and a changing condition. The campaign borrows those expectations to bring an unfamiliar issue into everyday attention. That can lower the learning burden, but it can also transfer an unwarranted sense of certainty if the underlying research is less granular than the familiar forecast interface suggests.

Editorial interpretation: timing gives the communication a reason to exist beyond general awareness. The policy meeting creates a public question about what should happen next, and the forecast supplies a recurring illustration of why the issue matters. Another organisation can use this approach by aligning a clear evidence-based explanation with a relevant decision moment. It should not confuse being present near decision-makers with demonstrating that its message changed their decisions.

Borrow a format, not its implied certainty

List the assumptions audiences associate with the familiar format. A forecast may imply local precision, frequent updates and established calibration. Check which expectations the new data can support. Use ranges, explanations and visible limitations where appropriate. The design should help people understand the evidence rather than make uncertain research look like a more mature measurement system.

Expose the translation from research to display

Document the inputs, modelling choices and spatial boundaries behind the headline figure. Ask independent specialists to review whether the presentation preserves those limits. A simple interface can still offer a readable method and a route to source material. If the calculation changes, keep a correction record. Transparency is especially important when an emotionally vivid visual may encourage audiences to overinterpret a number.

Separate public attention from institutional change

Define communication measures and policy outcomes separately. Media coverage may show that the format travelled; it does not demonstrate that a treaty provision or government commitment resulted from it. Document the actual decision timeline and other participants before discussing influence. A modest, well-supported account of contribution is more useful than claiming sole credit for a complex negotiation.

A small test for another brief

Proposed test: a local environmental group could translate a well-established public dataset into a weekly, clearly labelled neighbourhood bulletin, reviewed by a qualified specialist before release.

Ask readers to explain the quantity, its limitations and the appropriate next step. Compare comprehension and mistaken certainty, not just emotional reaction. Record corrections and whether readers can find the underlying evidence.

Stop if the format implies a health diagnosis, unsupported local precision or a policy victory that did not occur. Do not replace scientific uncertainty with a more dramatic headline.

• Choose one dataset with known coverage and explain what it measures versus estimates.
• Compare a conventional chart with a familiar bulletin format using identical information.
• Include uncertainty, date, geographic boundary and a link to the method in both versions.